The Super Bowl is the gambling extravaganza of the year, and as you probably already know, you can wager on a lot more than just the game itself.
Props and player props in particular are some of the most intriguing opportunities out there for gamblers. They afford scenarios which offer a completely unique way to watch the game, and they often pose tremendous value in some cases even if offering lower limits.
This year, given all the circumstances at play including weather and differences in offensive style, there are more than a few ways to approach the prop venue to find value. We’ll try to touch upon some of the areas that might offer the best positions and break them down for you.
1. The Marshawn Lynch Affect
The story lines leading up to this game for Seattle will typically center around the exploits of Richard Sherman and the struggles of Russell Wilson in the last two months.
Realistically, however, their likelihood of winning hinges on perhaps the NFL’s most physical runner. Seattle’s fortunes against the Niners completely changed on Lynch’s 40 yard touchdown run in the third quarter, and he is the heart and soul of this offense.
There are a slew of props featuring Lynch. His expected rushing attempts has been set at 21.5, longest run at 19.5 yards and he is -165 to score a touchdown in the game.
If you are a real degenerate, you can get involved in Robert Turbin’s figures, but Lynch will be front and center in this game. Seattle needs to keep Peyton Manning on the sideline and Lynch is the most obvious candidate to help control the clock
2. Earl Thomas’ Ability to Roam
Last season’s Super Bowl saw Donte Whitner’s over/under tackle figure set at 4.5. Whitner easily went over that total as he was often seen coming up into the box to deal with Baltimore’s Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.
Earl Thomas is a very special player and he should play an important role in this game. It’s likely that other match-ups could force fellow safety Cam Chancellor to be a shadower of Denver tight end Julius Thomas.
If Earl is free to roam, it could be quite easy for him to go over the expected figure of six tackles in this game. Aside from Sherman, he is a major defensive star in this league and an excellent hitter at that.
We have seen Peyton Manning attempt to establish the run to a serious extent this year, and Knowshon Moreno has been the beneficiary of that. I do not expect Manning to waste his time trying to establish the ground game here given what Seattle can do, so that could also take away from Thomas’ tackle totals. Still, expect Thomas to be a major factor in this game and someone who could impact the end of the game in a variety of ways should it come down to a last minute drive.
3. Peyton Manning
Manning is the biggest name to appear in this game by far and you can get involved in virtually any metric out there regarding what he is going to do.
Completions (26.5), total interceptions (0.5), touchdown passes (3) and total passing yards (290.5) are only a few of the figures flying around relative to Manning. You can also bet on weather or not he’ll retire prior to game one of next season should he win on Sunday.
Manning’s ability to win this game is going to force him to take it over. His previous Super Bowl title came against Rex Grossman and a Chicago team that simply did not have the offense to hang with his Colts.
Russell Wilson hasn’t been great recently, but he is not Grossman. He isn’t going to turn it over, and the Seahawks have a brand that very much figures to create problems for the opposition here.
Manning has to know deep down that he has to be front and center in this game plan in order to get a win. I expect him to attack Richard Sherman and work the ball to Wes Welker as much as possible. While he is historically a fan of the screen game and has two quality backs to execute such plays here, Seattle’s defense is excellent at defending misdirection thanks to ridiculous athleticism amongst its linebacking unit.
Look for Manning to attack both down the sidelines and on quick passing plays that feature Welker. The infamous “pick” he set on Aqib Talib got a lot of press this past week, but that is a fairly common play for both Welker and his former team to run. Seattle should see a lot of that type of action come this Sunday, and going underneath on a lot of passes could affect Manning’s yardage total in a negative manner.
4. The Kicking Game
Fans will watch this game to see great football and also see the sport’s biggest stage take place in potentially inclement weather. Such weather will make the kicking game tough for both clubs. But Seattle has an excellent defense and their offense itself has struggled in the red zone at times this season.
Those factors make it likely for the kickers to come up big here, and Vegas has made note of that. Matt Prater’s total expected point figure currently sits at nine, and Steve Hauschka’s number happens to be the same.
Two extra points and two field goals is probably an anticipated result for both players, and the guy who can get that extra opportunity could well be a member of the winning team.
It’s also interesting that Prater comes from Denver where the altitude is high. I’m not saying he isn’t a good kicker because he definitely is one of the league’s better options at the position.
But kicking in what could be a precipitation filled event will not only affect he and Hauschka’s numbers, but it will also affect decision making on the part of both coaches.
Pete Carroll has been blatantly willing to gamble at times when faced with fourth down scenarios in the opponent’s territory. John Fox is more conservative by nature, but this is Manning’s game to win or lose. Should he want to attack this secondary and use four downs instead of three, I’m thinking Fox will be inclined to listen tow hat he has to say.
5. The Impact of the Tight Ends
With all the talent on the field, Jacob Tamme is hardly the sexiest name out there. But Manning has been a big fan of him in critical scenarios this year and the two have a great rapport. On the flip side, Zach Miller is a guy who often gets overlooked. At the same time, Russell Wilson has gone to Miller in big games as well, and I could see both tight ends playing bigger roles than anticipated here.
When the weather is garbage, shorter and more direct passes are preferable. Going to the tight end is a safe way to move the chains or at least set yourself up with quality third down options. Both quarterbacks will be inclined to consider that here.
Tamme’s total receptions has been set at 1.5, and the over could be a play worth making. Miller’s figure is two with the over juiced to -130.
Miller had a ridiculous stat line against the Falcons in the divisional playoffs a year ago. The Broncos use their safeties and actually run semi-similar defensive schemes to that of Atlanta, and it would not surprise me if Miller played an important role in this game as well. He is +250 to score a touchdown and that smells like value to me.
6. Percy Harvin’s Role
It’s difficult to gauge how exactly Harvin will be utilized in this game here. We don’t exactly have much footage of him since he’s been on this Seattle roster, but his minor impact against New Orleans three weeks ago was telling.
Harvin left that game with concussion-like symptoms, but he was all over the field prior to his exit. Anyone who has watched him dating back to his days at Florida knows he is a big game talent who lives for moments like these. He could be the wild card that gives Seattle enough of a red zone edge should Denver load up the box against Lynch.
His total receiving yards has been set at 40.5, receptions at four and he is +160 to score a touchdown. Play that however you would like, but I do expect Harvin to be amped to be in this game. He is as blue-chip as they come and while his career might be one day cut short because of the violent nature in which he plays, he will likely savor this moment and come up with some big plays.
7. The MVP Argument
The MVP is probably my favorite personal wager to make. The last two years, you could have backed Eli Manning and Joe Flacco at better numbers than their teams respective money-lines.
Additionally, it’s a lot of fun to make a pick on who you expect to be the game’s most valuable player. Winning an MVP trophy in this spot is a massive career achievement that solidifies the legacy of anyone fortunate enough to do it, and that makes for great entertainment.
If Denver wins this game, its fairly obvious who will be the de facto MVP of the game. The last four have been quarterbacks and you have to go back to the name Santonio Holmes to find the most recent non-Q.B. to win it.
Should Denver prove victorious, it will be a lifetime achievement award for Manning, and deservedly so. But should Seattle get the win here, the two most apparent choices as the winner would both offer substantial improvements on the Seattle money line
Wilson, the quarterback who has underperformed recently is sitting at about +325, also a great improvement over his squad’s money line. Wilson is not a very sexy pick, but his legs and scrambling ability to prove to be monumental in treacherous weather. It also seemed as if getting that win over San Francisco lifted a monkey off his back to some extent, and I expect him to play loser against a Denver defense which has been brutal against the pass all year.
