Two big 12 clubs with tremendous similarities square off in Waco this afternoon when the Longhorns visit Scott Drew’s Bears.
Both clubs come off critical early week match-ups with the Bears being the beneficiary of an extra day’s rest. Isaiah Austin and Co. lost by ten at allen Fieldhouse Monday night, although they did put forth an outstanding effort which saw them neck and neck with tKansas up until midway through the second half.
Texas gutted out a gritty win at home against Kansas State, and now they get to at least see a similar style as Baylor is next up. Baylor is an excellent offensive rebounding team that currently ranks in the top 30 in offensive efficiency.
They have length and athleticism inside, and those features are direct offsets to what makes Texas so improved this season. Rick Barnes’ group is excellent on the glass and has also received steady play fro two young guards in Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor.
While the success of both programs to date comes from their interior pieces, the result of this game and Baylor’s ability to cover the current 5.5 point spread will come down to how their own guards play against the aforementioned Texas backcourt.
Kenny Cherry has been a huge help this year for Drew and his team, and Brady Heslip is as good a shooter as there is in the conference. But Baylor will need increased production out of senior Gary Franklin in this game. felix is the perfect defensive piece to stick with Cherry given how laterally quick both players are.
Baylor needs a spark off its bench beyond just Heslip, and Franklin can be that guy. The problem is he has seen his minutes slowly dwindle down in the last few weeks and was held scoreless in two of his previous four performances.
Ultimately this is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they come off a tough game against K-State and then have to deal with Kansas next week. Still, Barnes has his club focused and I do not expect them to look ahead at all.
But the bigger issue will be their ability to dictate lineups. Barnes loves to use three gourd rotations, so even while his forwards and interior bodies get most of the notoriety, he does prefer to have an extra ball handler on the floor most of the time.
Baylor instead typically plays with more oaf a true wing presence. Royce O’Neal and Taurean Prince should both hold considerable size advantages over whoever they are matched up with, and that could be a key in the type of defensive Texas chooses to utilize.
I had this game at Baylor -6 and do not see any sort of sizable discount given the current number. Some books have posted 5, and with this game set to tip off at 1:30 I’d wait to see the best number available.
But Baylor should be the better play here. They can neutralize Texas’ strengths and it is likely time for the Longhorns to get brought back down to earth. They have won four straight, but they do not have the necessary offensive consistency to keep that going.
