Following an incredible start to their season, the Buckeyes of OSU have dropped four games in a row as they get set to host Illinois tonight. The Illini come off a home dismantling last Saturday at the hands of MSU and have also lost four in a row to currently sit at 2-4 in conference.
The Illini have struggled offensively this season, currently coming in at 175 nationally in offensive efficiency. They have a trio of quality guards who can make things happen off the dribble, but also happen to be one of the poorest shooting teams in America to boot.
The most concerning issue with this match-up for them is how good OSU is along the perimeter defensively. The Buckeyes have the ability to completely neutralize Illinois’ scoring efforts in this game, and I would be shocked to see a total higher than 121/122.
As far as the spread, the Buckeyes opened as 10 point favorites and that number has since risen to 11 on most boards. Roughly 65% of spread bets are flowing in on the home favorite, and I cannot disagree with them.
The tough part about backing Aaron Craft and Co. in a game like this is that their offense has been all over the place this year. At times they basically freelance offensively with no blatant strategy in mind.
LaQuinton Ross is a nice bailout option to have, and Craft himself is a good enough playmaker with the ball when the clock is ticking down. Additionally, OSU does a decent enough job of getting the ball to the basket. They current rank 102 in FTA/FGA, while the Illini come in at 327. They tend to be reliant on perimeter and mid-range jumpers, and that could result in “feast or famine” in this one.
Backing the Buckeyes at a figure such as 9.5 or 10 would have made for a value play, but they are simply not good enough offensively to trust here. They also have proven to be a mediocre offensive rebounding group, and the Illini are quite solid in that area.
I expect OSU to bounce back strong in this game and get a win, but covering this number could be difficult. This is an important potential turning point for Thad Matta’s crew, and I’m interested to see how they perform in this spot.
