The Big Ten features a sensational match-up tonight when the Hawkeyes of Iowa head into Ann Arbor to take on Nik Stauskas and Co.
Iowa has flown under the radar for much of this season, but they are two deep at every position, have solid point guard play and good size. Their three losses are by a combined 12 points and came at the hands of Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin.
Michigan has opened as three point favorites for this game and the line seems to be settled there after some brief movement into the 2.5 range. Bets are split right down the middle for this one as many have come to respect the Wolverines following their seven point win in Madison, WI this past Saturday.
Michigan has seemingly somehow improved following the loss of Mitch McGary, their stud center who has missed the last seven games due to back ailments. McGary was a force during their tourney run a year ago, but his health issues made him an offensive liability at times early in the season.
While the Wolverine defense has improved slightly relative to where it was a season ago, their success has been in large part due to an offense that ranks in the top eight in both offensive and turnover efficiency.
Freshman guard Derrick Walton has been much steadier in the wake of McGary’s absence. A lot of that has to do with the offense being dummied down to some extent. As McGary left the rotation, so too did any hope of this team pounding it inside, and their attack now is entirely predicated upon a sensational trio of wing scorers in Stauskas, Glenn Robinson and Caris LeVert.
But the Michigan bigs will play a major role in their ability to win this one. Iowa features six regulars who are 6’7 or bigger. Their entire roster save for 7’1 center Adam Woodbury is a consistent three point threat, and their offense is both free flowing and immensely versatile thanks to their talented forwards.
The good news for the Wolverines is that their interior options are also very athletic. While none of them are offensive minded, they can all step out on the perimeter defensively and match-up with the opposition here.
This spread looks pretty fair as books have established a good balance amongst the betting public. Both teams are impressive on the surface and the match-up about to take place is a difficult one to project.
Watch Iowa point man Mike Gesell in this one. The sophomore has been very steady thus far this season, but to win this game on the road, he has to go after Walton and command that match-up.
Roy Devyn Marble and Zach McCabe are quality senior swingmen who have the skill to match up with both Robinson and LeVert. The, along with the other forwards on this roster, should be able to dictate match-ups down low, especially given their depth at those positions.
Michigan plays on the road against the Spartans of MSU on Saturday, but it’s highly unlikely they overlook this type of game for any reason. Beating Iowa would be further evidence of how far this group has come, but I tend to believe this could be the game where McGary is sorely missed.
There is more value on the dog here, but this figure is about where I’d expect it to be. This should be a great game between two quality conference foes, and it should also tell us a lot about Iowa’s long term potential in the NCAA tournament. They picked up a great road victory last week at Ohio State, but grabbing this game as well would take them to another stratosphere when it comes time to re-evaluate the conference standings.
