Any momentum Indiana was able to establish in a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin went out the window during their embarrassing home loss to Northwestern on Saturday. The Hoosiers lost to perhaps the worst team in the Big Ten and subsequently took themselves back out of the March Madness picture in the process.
They will now have to hit the road and take on a Spartans team that has been downright dominant since an early December home loss to UNC. But Michigan State will be playing its fourth consecutive game without center Adreian Payne.
While Payne was not needed against the likes of Minnesota, Northwestern and Illinois, he would definitely come in handy here. Noah Vonleh has been one of the better freshman big men in America thus far this year, and the Spartans could use a healthy rotation in dealing with the Indiana center.
Indiana opens this game as 12.5 point favorites, with that number sifting down toward 12 on some sites. Injuries usually present quality fade opportunities, but that hasn’t proven to be the case yet for Tom Izzo’s team.
The good teams tend to pick up where they left following any injury, so long as they have the depth to maintain. Matt Costello is a quality defensive center and a veteran to boot. His six blocks against Illinois were a season high and also illustrate what he is capable of.
Payne’s absence should also create added opportunity for Kenny Kaminski and Gavin Schilling to log more minutes in the coming weeks. The injury could turn out to be a blessing in disguise at it has the ability to essentially deepen Izzo’s rotation over time.
Part of me feels like Indiana warrants a play here as they have trended well when in the role of large dog. MSU has dates with Michigan (on Gameday) and Iowa following this outing as well, creating definite look-ahead potential.
But Indiana’s offense simply is not good enough to warrant backing in this scenario, especially on the road. The Spartans are clicking on all cylinders right now, and there is no need to get in their way. Indiana has only won ATS in two out of their last dozen trips to East Lansing, and I don’t see enough on their roster to think that changes here.
