Two premier Big 12 programs meet with a lot on the line Saturday. For Kansas, they are slowly creeping back toward the top ten thanks to some big wins following a rough patch of struggles. A victory over the Cowboys here would cement their presence atop the conference standings given that they would hold wins over both Oklahoma State and Iowa State.
Kansas was convincing in Ames on Monday. Their defense was sturdy and they dominated the glass en route to a seven point road win. While the Cyclones are not nearly as good defensively as the Cowboys, there are some similarities given how guard centric both clubs are.
The Cowboys are an incredibly interesting club because they have perhaps the nation’s best player in Marcus Smart. The electrifying point guard has cooled off a bit following a ridiculous star to the year, but there is still no doubt that he holds a major advantage in this game over his counterparts.
Kansas’ biggest question mark as they gear up for March comes down to point guard play. Naadir Tharpe and Frank Mason are still each trying to prove to Bill Self that they can command this offense. Smart and backcourt mate Markel Brown should be able to force their hand quite a bit here as they hold a definite advantage over the Kansas guards.
But the Jayhawks’ bread and butter comes down to what they can do inside. They have a superb front court with great depth, and that will be a massive factor here. Much was made this week of the Spencer Dinwiddie injury for the Colorado Buffaloes, but less notoriety has been thrown toward Michael Cobbins of these Cowboys when he got hurt two weeks ago.
Cobbins is a 6’8, 230 man who did a little bit of everything for OSU prior to tearing his ACL three games ago. The immediate results were not good as Kansas State was able to grab 14 offensive boards and convert nearly 50% of their two point shots as there was no certified rim protector playing for the Cowboys in their first game without Cobbins.
Okie State followed that up by allowing West Virginia and their incredibly inexperienced front court to nearly knock them off in Morgantown. OSU escaped with a two point victory, but you get the point.
Cobbins is not a household name, but he is the kind of player who could have made this team a serious national title contender. I’m personally far less certain of that likelihood now, and I expect his absence to begin to rear its ugly head starting Saturday.
Allen Fieldhouse is probably worth about 3.5 points to the spread. While the Jayhawks will be at a disadvantage when it comes to point guard play and overall offensive efficiency, they should hold an almost absurd advantage when it comes to the offensive glass and overall front court play.
This team is built from the inside out, and they have up to three bodies to throw at Le’Bryan Nash, a talented small/power forward who can easily be taken out of his game when dealing with larger and more athletic defenders. Kansas can also attack him on defense should he be matched up with the talented Perry Ellis.
Fading critical injuries is always important in a sport like hoops where one guy can command a ton of importance, and I see that as the case here. I projected this number at Kansas -6/6.5. Bookmakers opened it at four on a few sites and it was quickly bet up into the 5.5 range.
While the metrics regarding what these two teams have done YTD certainly supports a spread of 5.5, I think the Jayhawks are at a great situational advantage given the injury news. Kansas could make for a better second half play, but if you can get this at five, it’s well worth it.
Kansas -5
