The Huskies have gotten back to basics in notching two straight home wins against Harvard and UCF as they get ready to do battle with Memphis on Thursday night. They had lost three of five prior to this recent run, and major questions began to emerge regarding their offense.
Those questions could well reappear in Memphis during this game. The Huskies have a one dimensional offense which basically revolves around penetration and playmaking from their guards. While incredibly talented, neither Shabazz Napier nor Ryan Boatright have great size. Defenses with length, discipline and good communication are usually capable of taking them out of their game.
Memphis has one of the better defenses in the country, and they have great guard depth. While the Huskies have no other reliable ball handlers beyond the two men mentioned, Memphis uses a rotation of four guys who can all create with the ball and shoot it.
Another critical aspect of this match-up will be the offensive glass for Memphis. While UConn grades out at 258 when it comes to working the defensive boards, the Tigers rank in the top 30 offensively. Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols are a tough duo to stop down low, and neither player has been terribly influenced by foul trouble this year.
The aforementioned match-up issues for UConn make me feel as if this number of 6/6.5 is very fair. Memphis is a slightly better team right now, but they have not performed well enough in the role of heavy favorite to warrant a higher number at this moment.
I don’t expect UConn to overlook this game because they really can’t afford to. But they do play Louisville on Saturday and it’ll be hard for them to not take a peak at that. Just given what I have seen from the Memphis guards on the defensive end, they should have enough here to handle the Huskies in this matchup.
Watch out for centers Amida Brimah and Phillip Nolan in this game. They are reserves for the Huskies, but both played very well against UCF in their most recent game. Should they be able to help UConn inside in defending the Tiger forwards here, it’ll make it increasingly difficult for Memphis to cover the given spread.
Ultimately, however, UConn will fade away in this game. Their lack of guard depth has made them a great second half fade option, and I’d look for that here depending on halftime score.
