While the Big Ten has a potential classic on its hands tonight, so to does the Big 12. Baylor brings an interesting team into Iowa State for a battle with Fred Hoiberg’s club.
The Cyclones have been very good at home and are one of the best offensive units in the country. They are 10th in offensive efficiency and have improved as a club defensively from a season ago. ISU is one of only a few remaining undefeated teams, and their overall resume to date is impressive.
For Baylor, this will be a very interesting challenge. The Bears have been pretty solid this season and looked good in games against Colorado, Syracuse and Kentucky. They do have some weaknesses here, and it will be up to the Cyclones to take advantage.
For starters, this is not a very turnover efficient team. While Iowa State does not exactly cause a ton of takeaways, they do protect the ball very well as DeAndre Kane has provided them a great addition at the point spot in the wake of several crucial graduations. Moreover, ISU plays at a pace that could cause Baylor additional difficulty.
While Baylor has a major size advantage in this game, their bigs are not great at getting out and defending along the perimeter. Both of ISU’s primary inside threats are guys who play outside and in motion an awful lot. That could force Baylor to go zone and attempt to use its length to get stops. But going zone against a team like the Cyclones is a scary proposition.
Kenny Chery could be a massive key to this game. Chery, a transfer, has logged big minutes at the lead guard spot this season. He has been efficient for the most part, but will need to be more dynamic if Baylor wants to pull the upset.
I wouldn’t consider Iowa State a weak defensive team, but they are susceptible to dribble penetration. They shoot the three a ton, and so they are built to guard along the perimeter because they go up against such offense in practice every day.
Other players aside from Chery need to step up and be aggressive in this game, however. Gary Franklin is another player who could have a very productive day here. The senior guard has been good a nice complement to Chery, but the two will have to do more in this game than they have all year if they want to pull the sup set.
This spread opens at 7.5 and that’s a bit high. Iowa State has a great home court advantage and is explosive offensively. The Bears are 18th in defending the three ball, and that should help them keep this game tight. Still, their turnover metrics and question marks at the free throw line make their ability to cover this one a big unknown.
