The 16th and final national title of the BCS era will kickoff shortlyt, and it features two teams whom many did not expect to get here when the year began.
Much has been made of Auburn’s 3-9 record from a year ago to go along with outrageous odds attached to them this season. They were something like 10,000-1 to win it all following their September loss to LSU in Baton Rouge.
The ‘Noles, on the other hand, came into the season at something like 30-1. While they were ranked, few had any real idea as to how good Jameis Winston would be. Winston glided toward the Heisman while playing a relatively weak schedule. Still, there is little doubt as to which team should be ranked number one to close the year.
While Auburn has rebuilt itself under Gus Malzahn in incredibly quick and impressive fashion, their roster still lacks the type of talent FSU comes in with. FSU is gifted with an incredible receiving corps and could send as many as three of those players to the NFL in the near future.
But the defensive side of the ball is where the ‘Noles really flourish even if Winston and Co. get the majority of the credit. FSU is both fast and physical and they have excellent linebacker play in the form of Terrance and Telvin Smith. Timmy Jernigan is a potential first round NFL talent at defensive tackle and he is joined by Jacobbi McDaniel to form an imposing interior defensive line.
Fischer has brought an SEC-level recruiting style to Tallahassee. He has recruited athletes along the offensive and defensive front that have enabled this program to flourish in the ACC. His opponent tonight is not without skill as well.
Auburn has ran the ball at a level almost unheard of for the current state of college football. Much of their success has been the result of excellent decision making and steady play by Nick Marshall and Tre Mason. Marshall, in particular, has done an incredible job of making quality reads in an offense that was unfamiliar to him prior to this season.
The Tigers can both stretch you out on the perimeter and also hit you in between the tackles. I’d look for the ‘Noles to play their LB’s a bit closer to the line of scrimmage an attempt to minimize interior holes for Mason to run through early on.
Fischer, like many coaches before him, has to make Marshall beat this team with his arm. He is blessed with gifted athletes at the second level, and so playing with a more aggressive purpose close to the point of attack should bode well as he will not worry about leaving corners in man situations.
Auburn enters as a hefty 10/10.5 underdog. The line originated at about 9 before moving down to 8.5 and then all the way back up to the 10.5 range. Many experts believe the true line should be something like 11-12, but Vegas appears reluctant to push the number up that high given the current public support for the dog.
Auburn has no intention of playing slow on offense. Typically, you would have to look for and hope that the dog here could keep the opposition’s elite passing attack on the sideline in the form of long drives centered around chunk yardage on the ground.
Malzahn has to seriously consider a slower approach as his secondary could be in massive trouble here. They were gashed at times by teams like LSU, Alabama and Georgia. All three opposing quarterbacks were able to get time in the pocket and deliver big performances in their games.
While the focus should be on defending the pass, Auburn also has to establish itself up front. Their defensive line is by far their greatest strength defensively. They are not only solid on the inside, but also very effective in pass rush.
Their line-backing play has been mediocre for much of the season and especially in coverage. I’d expect them to utilize bracket schemes with a safety over the top of talented tight end Nick O’Leary. O’Leary, the son of golf legend Jack Nicklaus, is not as talked about as Winston’s other options outside, but he is just as devastating, especially in the red zone.
They will likely have to use one safety on top of Kelvin Benjamin as well. The super athletic wide-out who has been Winston’s most effective target also happens to present incredible size to combine with the ultra shifty Rashad Greene.
Ultimately, Auburn needs to mix up its coverage throughout the game. They can’t afford to be predictable at all, and will need to roll the dice regularly if they want any chance at winning here.
Everything on paper indicates that Winston’s club should be the winner here. Their ability to prepare for Auburn’s offense over the course of five weeks should be more beneficial than Auburn’s prep time given the fact that Auburn simply shouldn’t have enough bodies to match-up for 60 minutes.
Still, the Tigers have surprised us many a time and I look for them to keep this game reasonably tight. If they can find a way to force a turnover or two, something Duke was able to do in the ACC title game, it could really turn the tide.
Duke was unable to capitalize off their defense’s efforts, largely in part to their offensive issues when facing a defense like FSU’s. Auburn is the type of team that absolutely shines when provided with momentum, and they will likely enter this game the looser club more willing to let it fly.
The ACC title game with Duke was interesting because of what transpired early. We have yet to see the ‘Noles have to come back from an early deficit. Auburn will no doubt attempt to capitalize early, and there is no telling how Winston and his offense will fare with their backs to the wall.
Twitter has been blowing up today regarding BCS history. The spread has never mattered in any of the previous 15 BCS title bouts, as the dog has either won outright or failed to cover in all of those historical match-ups.
It would only be ironic for the spread to come into play here given this being the end of the BCS era. While FSU would probably be the better play at any number less than 10, that is obviously on longer available.
I do think Auburn has what it takes to hang around here. Psychology is a big factor in these spots. It’s tough to figure out how college kids will respond to certain scenarios, but even so much as a slow start could doom the Seminoles’ ability to run up big numbers.
Malzahn will be more than willing to let it all hang out, and I give him enough of an edge of Fischer to think he can gives us a far more entertaining title game than what we witnessed one season ago.
FSU 33, Auburn 27
