San Diego heads to the state of Ohio to play its first playoff game in a few years today. The two most recent match ups between these teams were played in Southern California. They both were relatively tight games which came down to the final minutes.
Cincinnati’s weather makes this an even more interesting game, as it is very likely to possibly both rain and snow throughout the afternoon. While San Diego has played very well at times on the road this season, they also are not used to playing in conditions such as what this game could well present.
But, as we saw last night, a lot in this league comes down to quarterback play. While the Bengals are the better team top to bottom and are playing at home, the one thing they don’t have is a quarterback edge.
Phillip Rivers might well be in line to be the comeback player of the year. This is the same guy who once played in an AFC Championship game with a torn ACL. Andy Dalton has played well this season, but his playoff history has to leave you with questionable confidence in him when paired with Rivers for a winner take all scenario.
Regarding Cincy’s offense, while they did win the last two games in San Diego, they put up very low YPP and scoring numbers in those games. They were aided by turnovers the last time, and the Chargers are notorious for blowing non division games in front of their fans countless times.
San Diego has a defense that has been extremely weak against the pass before this season, but they came on and had big performances later in the year, namely a win over Denver on the road about three weeks back.
Cincy will move the ball here, but I don’t foresee them dominating the line of scrimmage enough to roll up big points. This has the potential to be a more high scoring game given the weather, but these defenses are probably better in total than people give them credit for.
With the Bengals especially, their defense has been the critical factor in their ascent through the AFC this season. They enter this game as the better team, and these playoffs as a legitimate contender in the conference.
Their secondary was extremely impressive in handing Tom Brady his worst offensive day in years earlier this season. They sustained injuries midway through the year. They gave up more points per game following the loss of Geno Atkins, but still went 5-3 in the second half of the season. Their linebacking unit has athleticism and depth now with newcomer James Harrison.
But psychology will play a role here as well. The Bengals are trying to win their first ever playoff game as a group, while San Diego hits the road with house money and a lot of bulletin board material.
They looked awful in nearly losing to Kansas City a week ago. But this club did win its final four games. They bet both Denver and Kansas City on the road and also beat two other playoff teams in Indy and Philadelphia.
60% of spread bets are coming in on the Bengals. Cincy is a good team and has been great at home, but this number should be less than seven. The Chargers haven’t received much wise guy support according to many outlets, but that doesn’t mean game theory isn’t in play.
The real key for the Chargers will be their ability to run the ball. Ryan Mathews has finally become the player they thought he could be coming out of college. While Rivers could be the guy who wins this game for them at the end, Mathews will be the force that stabilizes them throughout the storm.
Chargers +7
