The battle for “The Commonwealth” will take another turn on Saturday as a young Kentucky team welcomes in the defending national champs to Rupp Arena. Last year’s Kentucky group was also young when they headed into Lousiville for what could have been an ambush. They played very competitively in that game despite going down late.
The 2013 version should not disappoint, as both schools look very much capable of going deep in March. The talent is there, but questions remain for both sides as well. Kentucky has received questionable play from their young guards at times, and it has shown itself in the box scores of many games against quality competition.
Louisville has played a far lighter schedule, but do statistically appear to be the better unit. No one in the country matches their defensive and offensive balance as they rank in the top five in both. They have a wise and masterful coach who is working to develop two young guards for a team that lost perhaps its two most important players from a season ago.
If you have watched Louisville, it is apparent that Chris Jones is going to be a very good player. He has the athleticism and court awareness to be special in an up tempo system. Terry Rozier has been decent off the bench, and the Cardinals have dealt with limited resistance this season, save for the North Carolina game. But this will be another major challenge given the similarities.
Jones and dynamite off guard Russ Smith dominated the inexperienced Carolina guards in that November neutral site battle, but the bigger issue was their lack of productivity inside. Montrezl Harrell and Stephan Van Treese combined for just seven points to go along with nine fouls. The Cardinals were also out rebounded 40-35 during that nine point loss, their only of the season to date.
Kentucky, like Carolina, has incredible size up front and they are slowly beginning to become a better defensive unit. The Harrison twins are still raw, but they have length that can create problems for the Louisville guards. Rick Pitino’s team has graded out very well thus far in terms of offensive efficiency, but his matchup will be far more difficult if they are not able to manipulate the offensive glass the way they have against other opponents.
Kentucky has looked sloppy at times and their guard play has to make you question their realistic ability to win a national championship. Still, this is a massive game for them and they have played considerably better in recent weeks, including in close losses to Baylor and North Carolina.
I’d expect Pitino to use quite a bit of zone here given the size issues, and Kentucky has seen zone from the vast majority of opponents already. They are not as good a shooting team as the visitor here, but they have the rebounding ability to potentially get Louisville into foul trouble and also win the battle on the glass.
Rebounding is an often overblown aspect to predicting the outcome of any game. But, should Louisville go zone for long stretches, it could really open some things up for Julius Randle inside. That puts added stress on a defense that cannot afford to offer too much help side assistance given Kentucky’s other athletes.
This game will be a major test to Kentucky’s defense, however. They need their guards to be electric on the outside. Smith is a mastermind with the ball and has a mid range game here that could prove lethal. He is perhaps the most efficient scorer in the country and can leave defenses scratching their heads. Still, he hasn’t seen length like what he will have to work against here, and every shot he hoists up will get a serious challenge.
Kentucky also has to be wear of the trio of small forwards who have proven so effective in different ways for Pitino. Wayne Blackshear, Luke Hancock and Chane Behanan all affect games in significant ways and provide versatility and consistency within the 2-3 zone. Blackshear and Hancock, in particular, are lethal shooters who can demoralize virtually any zone
The aforementioned Jones and Harrell are really good players who could well bring Pitino back to the Final Four, but they are also significant downgrades in the short term compared to what Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng provided on a consistent basis a season ago. Louisville has yet to deal with a difficult road challenge, but it will be presented to them today.
Kentucky +3
