The Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a 54-11 blasting of the Chicago Bears look to be poised for the playoffs as they head down to Dallas this weekend. Tony Romo is a major question mark for the game and spread bets are flowing in at a ridiculous clip on the Eagles (only Kansas City +10 is garnering more attention this week in regard to public affiliation).
Oftentimes in the NFL we see injury news push a line way out of whack. It happened in several noticeable circumstances this season, including a week 15 game which involved Philly. Minnesota went into that game in lieu of a quarterback change and was also playing without Adrian Peterson and spell back Toby Gerhart. The line rose from the 5-6 range all the way to 7.5 and 8, with the under appreciated Vikings taking on the role of massive home dog. Minnesota won that game easily, and provided yet another example of how value can emerge following an overreaction to an injury.
The quarterback position is special and unique, and a potential absence of Romo should obviously be met with precaution. Kyle Orton is a serviceable backup and should be able to navigate these waters given that he has been on this roster for several seasons now. Romo is a very under appreciated asset, and is clearly worth quite a bit to the number. Still, Dallas is not incapable at this point.
While the injury news and eventual shakeout will play a significant role heading into Sunday, there is a more interesting phenomenon at stake as we finalize the 2013 NFL season. While injuries can unquestionably create overblown spreads, so too can misperception based on a previous week’s outcome. Nick Foles and company looked awfully good on Sunday night, but they should probably have saved a few of those second half touchdowns for this week…if history is any indicator.
Chicago and Philly both head to week 17 with playoff hopes. While everyone will readily back the Birds, support for Chicago is far less vast. Not only do they have to deal with the return of Aaron Rodgers in their NFC North title game, but they looked terrible at Lincoln Financial, and their beat down has many fans and bettors feeling as if they are done.
There have been 32 games involving a final margin of victory at 40 or higher since the 2000 NFL season. The winner of that initial game has gone on to win the following week 22 times. The loser, however, has gone a surprising 14-16 SU and provided competitive performances when it was least expected of them (hitting ATS at a 63% clip). Making matters even more interesting is that, in four of the most recent scenarios involving victory margin of 40 or more (dating back to 2009), the beneficiary of the blowout lost the following week while the loser won their next game.
Obviously there are other issues, injuries and trends at play in some of these games. Still, the evidence seems to strongly support the contrarian line of thinking. It also serves to force us to take a closer look at the league and consider elements beyond simply match-ups and trends.
The NFL is a profession and a sport, but it is also a psychological arena driven by media based logic and, oftentimes, stupidity. The highs of achieving a resounding win one week can often be met with a failed preparation and lack of focus entering your next matchup, and vice versa.
These factors are what will make the two key divisional title games in the NFC all the more intriguing. Everyone seems to be writing off the Cowboys given how good Philly looked against a fellow potential playoff contender in Chicago, but there is actually a lot to like about them here.
As mentioned, Orton is a guy who has starter’s experience and he also has a nice complement of playmakers around him. He has a good running back whom Dallas fans have long wished would see more touches. Jason Witten is a good safety valve provides a major test for defenses who are typically too caught up on the Cowboys’ perimeter contributors.
Additionally, this group will likely rally behind Romo and play a bit tougher in honor of him. Their frustrations, which have become obvious throughout several meltdowns this season, have likely boiled over at the most recent news surrounding their quarterback. Everything seems to be going wrong for them, and that could just be the trigger point for a signature performance from a group that will undoubtedly take on the “Us Against The World” persona this week.
Dallas is the team that has been here countless times before as well. They lost a heartbreaking game in the seasons final week in D.C. last season thanks to a late game Romo interception. They also got worked over by a 31-14 count up in New York in 2011 during a game which would have enabled them to head to the playoffs had they won. Instead, they watched New York use that game as a springboard toward a second Super Bowl title in the Eli Manning era.
For Chicago, their task, albeit at home, looks a bit tougher. They are on the wrong end of some injury news as Rodgers looks poised to play this week. While rust is a major factor for many average players in this instance, Rodgers is anything but. He is a machine and has had great success against Chicago in his career.
While the Bears could undoubtedly struggle here in what could be a great preclude to the PHI-DAL primetime tilt, it’s interesting to note that they will probably attest to similar psychological responses as Dallas. Being cast off by everyone with a mouth is classic bulletin bored material.
Human nature dictates responses that completely contradict a perceived notion created by people who often have little idea as to what they are dissecting. Keep that in mind during what should be a great final week of football, and maybe use it to your advantage should you see fit.
