UMass enters this game at 10-0 and ranked for the first time in a while. FSU has also looked really good in getting out to a 7-3 start that included tight losses to Michigan, Florida and Minnesota, with the latter two coming on the road in tough environments.
The Seminole defense is long, active and athletic, and that is a major reason why they are favored by 1.5/2 points entering this neutral site contest set to tip off from Sunrise, FL. I have the game at PK and believe this should be one of the best games of the day. While it doesn’t appear to hold a ton of betting value in my mind, it should be one worth observing as these two get ready for conference play.
UMass has a better quality of offense and is actually ranked higher in defensive efficiency as well, although the schedule they have played pales in comparison to that of the ‘Noles. Both teams like to play fast and can be a bit erratic with the ball. While the Minutemen have the better point guard, the Seminoles should have an advantage down low and on the boards.
Ian Miller, the 6’3 senior guard for FSU, is a key factor in this game. He was very aggressive in containing Scottie Wilbekin when they played Florida and also dominated the VCU guards in that game. Everything UMass wants to do starts with Chaz Williams, and so it is imperative that Miller contain him and everything else should fall into place.
UMass simply hasn’t faced the athleticism they will see in this game and, outside of their Ohio win this week, don’t have much in terms of road success to hang their hat on. This is not a road game, but I’d expect far more FSU fans to be in the building given location. That makes it a tricky spot despite the fact that the Minutemen are probably the better team, albeit by a very minor margin.
UMass’ offense is predicated upon dribble penetration by Williams which then leads to open shots for the rest of his team. Teams that try to exclusively attack the basket typically fail when facing FSU because of their plethora of shot blocking talent. UMass’ ability to rely on perimeter scoring and still be effective is the primary reason I felt this game was a toss up.
Vegas seems to have a good read on FSU, however. Their inclination to make them a small favorite is logical given how impressive they looked at home against Charlotteearlier this week and in lieu of the scheduling UMass has benefit from. The current spread has created good two way action here with 53% of spread bets coming in on the Noles.
